{
    "id": "FC-2026-086",
    "slug": "fc-2026-086",
    "question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᚽᚯᚴᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᛌᚢᛌᛐᛁᛘ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2029 ᛒᛁᚠᛆᚱᛆ ᛒᚭᛐᛁ ᚱᚭᛒᚢᛐᛁ ᚢᚴ ᚿᚢᚱᛘᛆᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᛌᛁᚴᚴᛁᚱᚽᛁᛁᛐᛌᚠᛁᛌᛁᚿᚴᛆᚱ ᛌᚢᛘ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐ?",
    "title": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᚽᚯᚴᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᛌᚢᛌᛐᛁᛘ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2029 ᛒᛁᚠᛆᚱᛆ ᛒᚭᛐᛁ ᚱᚭᛒᚢᛐᛁ ᚢᚴ ᚿᚢᚱᛘᛆᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᛌᛁᚴᚴᛁᚱᚽᛁᛁᛐᛌᚠᛁᛌᛁᚿᚴᛆᚱ ᛌᚢᛘ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐ?",
    "resolution_date": "2029-08-14",
    "resolution_criteria": "ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛐ ᛁᛘᛒᛚᛁᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛁᚴᛌᛆᚴᛐ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᚢᛘ, ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚴᛁᛁᛚᛐᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚱᛁᛐᛆᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᛚᛚ ᛆᚠᚴᛁᛁᚱᛐ ᛁᛐᛐᛁᚱ ᛌᛚᚢᛐᛐᛐᛆᛐᚢ.",
    "probability_low": 55,
    "probability_high": 75,
    "confidence_class": "C3",
    "base_rate": "ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᚱᛆᚴᛌᛁᛌ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᚢᚠᛐᛁ ᛁᚿᚿᚠᚯᚱᛐ ᚢᛁᛆᛘᚿᛐ: ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚱᛁᚴᚢᛚᛆᛐᚢᚱᛁᛌᚴ ᛒᚱᛁᛌᛌ ᚴᛆᚿ ᛆᚴᛌᛁᛚᛁᚱᛁᚱᛆ ᚴᚱᛆᚠ, ᛘᛁᛐᛆᚿ ᚠᛁᚱᚴᛐᚯᚢᚠᛆᚱᛁᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚢᚴ ᚴᚢᛌᛐᚿᛆᛐ ᚠᚢᚱᛌᛁᛁᚿᚴᛆᚱ ᛒᚱᛁᛁ ᛒᚱᛆᚴᛌᛁᛌ.",
    "evidence_set": [
        "SRC-358",
        "SRC-289",
        "SRC-374"
    ],
    "assumptions": "ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛆᚱ ᚢᚴ ᛆᚴᛁᚿᛐᛆᚱᚴᛁᛐᛁᚴᛐᚢᚱᛆᚱ ᚽᛁᛚᛐ ᚠᚱᛆᛘ ᛘᛁᛐ ᚭ ᚢᛐᚠᛁᚴᛚᛆ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᛁᚿᚿᛐᛆᚴ ᚢᚴ ᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᚿᛁᛁᚿᛌ.",
    "drivers": "ᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛁᚴᛐᛁ ᛒᚱᚢᛘᛒᛐᛁᚿᛁᛁᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛘᛁᛐᛆᛐᛆᛐᛆᛆᚿᚴᚱᛁᛒ, ᛐᛁᛚᚴᛁᛁᚿᚴᛁᛚᛁᚴᚽᛁᛁᛐᛌᛘᛁᛌᛒᚱᚢᚴ, ᚢᚿᛁᚴᚢᛐᛁ-ᚠᚢᚱᚠᛁᚴᛌᛚᛁᚿᚴ, ᚱᛁᚴᚢᛚᛆᛐᚢᚱᛁᛌᚴ ᛒᚱᛁᛌᛌ ᚢᚴ ᛒᛁᚽᚢᚠ ᚠᚢᚱ ᛆᚢᛐᛁᛐᛁᚱᛒᛆᚱ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚ/ᛐᛆᛐᛆ-ᛌᛁᛒᛆᚱᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ.",
    "counter_drivers": "ᚴᚢᛘᛒᛚᛁᚴᛌᛁᛐᛁᛐ, ᚴᚢᛌᛐᚿᛆᛐ, ᚠᛆᛚᛌᚴᛁ ᛒᚢᛌᛁᛐᛁᚠᛁ, ᛚᛁᚴᛁᛐᛁᛘᛁ ᚢᚿᛁᚴᚢᛐᛁ-ᛒᛁᚽᚢᚠ, ᛒᚱᚢᛒᚱᛁᛁᛐᛅᚱᛁ ᛒᛁᛒᛁᛚᛁᚿᛁᚴᚢᛘᛒᚢᚿᛁᚿᛐᛆᚱ ᚢᚴ ᛌᚠᛆᚴᛁ ᚠᛁᛚᛚᛁᛌ ᛐᛁᛌᛐᚴᚢᚱᛒᚢᛌ.",
    "unknowns": "ᚴᚠᛆ ᛚᛁᚠᛁᚱᛆᚿᛐᚯᚱᛆᚱ, ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛆᚱ ᚢᚴ ᛁᚢᚱᛁᛌᛐᛁᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿᛆᚱ ᛌᚢᛘ ᚠᛁᛚ ᛐᚢᛘᛁᚿᛁᚱᛆ ᚢᚴ ᚴᚢᚱᛚᛁᛁᛌ ᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛘᚭᛚᛐ ᛁ ᚠᛆᚴᛐᛁᛌᚴ ᛐᚱᛁᚠᛐ.",
    "status": "OPEN",
    "publication_time": "2026-08-16T22:21:00Z",
    "last_review": "2026-08-14",
    "next_review": "2026-11-14",
    "withdrawal_conditions": "ᛐᚱᛁᚴᚴ ᛐᛁᛚᛒᛆᚴᛁ ᛒᛁᚱᚱᛁ ᛐᛁᚱᛌᚢᛘ ᛌᛒᚯᚱᛌᛘᚭᛚᛁᛐ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛚᚢᚴᛁᛌᚴ ᚢᛘᚢᚴᛚᛁᚴ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚢᛐᛁᛌᛐᛒᛆᚱᛐ; ᛒᛁᚠᛆᚱ ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴ ᚢᚱᛐᛚᚢᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛌᛆᚿᚿᛌᚢᚿ.",
    "final_resolution": null,
    "score": null,
    "correction_status": "NONE",
    "updates": [
        {
            "forecast_id": "FC-2026-086",
            "sequence": 1,
            "time": "2026-08-16T22:21:00Z",
            "probability_low": 55,
            "probability_high": 75,
            "reason": "ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴ ᛌ15-estimat ᛒᛆᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᛒᚭ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᚢᚿᛁᚴᚢᛐᛁ-, ᚿᛁᛐᛐ-, ᛐᛁᛚᚴᛁᛁᚿᚴᛁᛚᛁᚴᚽᛁᛁᛐᛌ-, ᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᚿᛁᛁᚿᛌ- ᚢᚴ ᛆᚴᛁᚿᛐᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᚴᚱᛆᚠ, ᛘᛁᚿ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᛆᚠ ᛁᛘᛒᛚᛁᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿᛌᚠᛆᚱᛁᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚢᚴ ᛘᛆᚿᚴᛚᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᛒᚱᚢᛐᚢᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿᛌᛘᚭᛚᛁᚿᚴ.",
            "previous_hash": "0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
            "entry_hash": "65864cf08bcd41974e7e8a14de2a4fd7861e7333952521a599c52cc14d810bb7"
        }
    ],
    "source_ids": [
        "SRC-358",
        "SRC-289",
        "SRC-374"
    ],
    "resolution_source_ids": [],
    "resolution": null,
    "limitations": "ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿᛁᛐ ᛁᚱ ᛁᛁ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᛌᛆᚿᚿᛌᚢᚿᛌᚠᚢᚱᛐᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ, ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛒᛚᛆᚿ, ᛆᚠᚴᛁᛁᚱᛐ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚢᛒᛁᚱᛆᛐᛁᚠ ᚢᚱᛐᚱᛁ.",
    "original_question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᚽᚯᚴᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᛌᚢᛌᛐᛁᛘ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2029 ᛒᛁᚠᛆᚱᛆ ᛒᚭᛐᛁ ᚱᚭᛒᚢᛐᛁ ᚢᚴ ᚿᚢᚱᛘᛆᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᛌᛁᚴᚴᛁᚱᚽᛁᛁᛐᛌᚠᛁᛌᛁᚿᚴᛆᚱ ᛌᚢᛘ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐ?",
    "original_probability_low": 55,
    "original_probability_high": 75,
    "score_method": "BRIER_INTERVAL_V1",
    "scoring_rule_version": "1.0.0",
    "resolution_authority": "ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᛚᛐᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛁᚴᛌᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚱᛁᛐᛆᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᛚᛚ ᛆᚠᚴᛁᛁᚱᛐ ᛁᛐᛐᛁᚱ ᛐᛆᛐᚢ. ᚴᛚᛁᛁᚿᛐ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛌᛁᛐᛁ ᚴᛆᚿ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛆ ᛆᚢᛐᚢᛘᛆᛐᛁᛌᚴ.",
    "ledger_entry_count": 1,
    "ledger_head_hash": "65864cf08bcd41974e7e8a14de2a4fd7861e7333952521a599c52cc14d810bb7",
    "ledger_hash_method": "SHA-256-CANONICAL-JSON-2",
    "ledger_hash_valid": true,
    "ledger_hash_payload_fields": [
        "forecast_id",
        "sequence",
        "time",
        "probability_low",
        "probability_high",
        "reason_nb",
        "previous_hash",
        "hash_method"
    ],
    "calibration_bin": "ᛒ60_79"
}