{
    "id": "FC-2026-084",
    "slug": "fc-2026-084",
    "question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᚱᚢᚿᛁᛐᚢᛘᛆᛁᚿᚿᛁᛐᚠᚢᚱᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚢᚦᛁᚱᚱᚢᚿᛁᚴᛐᚢᛘᛆᛁᚿᛌ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2029 ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛘᛁᛁᚱ ᚱᛁᚴᛁᛒᚱᚢᚴᛆᛚ ᛘᛆᛌᚴᛁᚿᛚᛁᛌᛒᛆᚱ ᚴᛚᛆᛌᛌᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᛐᛆᚿ ᚭ ᛒᛚᛆᚿᛐᛆ ᛘᛁᛐᛚᛁᛘᛌᚴᛆᛒ ᚢᚴ ᛘᚢᚿᛐᛁᚴᚽᛁᛁᛐ?",
    "title": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᚱᚢᚿᛁᛐᚢᛘᛆᛁᚿᚿᛁᛐᚠᚢᚱᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚢᚦᛁᚱᚱᚢᚿᛁᚴᛐᚢᛘᛆᛁᚿᛌ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2029 ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛘᛁᛁᚱ ᚱᛁᚴᛁᛒᚱᚢᚴᛆᛚ ᛘᛆᛌᚴᛁᚿᛚᛁᛌᛒᛆᚱ ᚴᛚᛆᛌᛌᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᛐᛆᚿ ᚭ ᛒᛚᛆᚿᛐᛆ ᛘᛁᛐᛚᛁᛘᛌᚴᛆᛒ ᚢᚴ ᛘᚢᚿᛐᛁᚴᚽᛁᛁᛐ?",
    "resolution_date": "2029-08-14",
    "resolution_criteria": "ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᚢᛐᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᛚᛁᚴ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐ, ᛁᚴᛌᛆᚴᛐ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᚢᛘ, ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚴᛁᛁᛚᛐᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚱᛁᛐᛆᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᛚᛚ ᛆᚠᚴᛁᛁᚱᛐ ᛁᛐᛐᛁᚱ ᛐᛆᛐᚢ.",
    "probability_low": 35,
    "probability_high": 55,
    "confidence_class": "C3",
    "base_rate": "ᛐᛁᚴᚿᛁᛌᚴᛁ ᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᛚᛆᚱ ᚴᛆᚿ ᚿᚭ ᛒᛁᛚᚢᛐ ᚱᛆᛌᚴᛐ, ᛘᛁᚿ ᚠᛚᛁᛁᚱᛁᛘᛒᛚᛁᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛒᛁᚿᚿᛆ ᛘᛆᛐᛁᚱᛁᛆᛚᛁ, ᚠᚢᛌᛁᛌᚴ ᛒᛁᚠᛁᛌ ᚢᚴ ᛁᚴᛌᛐᛁᚱᚿ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᛐᛁᚴ ᚢᚠᛐᛁ ᚠᛚᛁᛁᚱᛁ ᚭᚱ.",
    "evidence_set": [
        "SRC-423",
        "SRC-449",
        "SRC-450"
    ],
    "assumptions": "ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌ- ᚢᚴ ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᚱᚢᚴᚱᛆᛘ ᚽᛁᛚᛐ ᚠᚱᛆᛘ, ᚢᚴ ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐ ᚴᛆᚿ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚᛁᚱᛆᛌᛐ ᛘᚢᛐ ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᚢᛘ.",
    "drivers": "ᛆᚴᛁᚿᛐᚠᛁᚴᛌᛐ, ᚠᚢᚱᛘᛆᛐᚠᚢᚱᚠᛁᚴᛌᛚᛁᚿᚴ, ᚱᛁᛌᛌᚢᚱᛌᚢᛐᛐᚯᛘᛁᚿᚴ, ᚠᚢᚱᛌᚢᚿᛁᚿᚴᛌᚱᛁᛌᛁᚴᚢ, ᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᚢᛘ ᛆᚢᛐᛁᛐᛁᚱᛒᛆᚱ ᛆᚢᛐᚢᚱᛁᛐᛁᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᛌᚴ ᚱᛁᛌᛐᛆᚱᛐ.",
    "counter_drivers": "ᛚᛁᚠᛁᚱᛆᚿᛐᚯᚱᛚᚭᛌᛁᚿᚴ, ᛒᚱᚢᛒᚱᛁᛁᛐᛅᚱᛁ ᛆᚱᛐᛁᚠᛆᚴᛐᛆᚱ, ᚠᚭ ᚢᛆᚠᚽᛁᚿᚴᛁᚴᛁ ᛁᛘᛒᛚᛁᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿᛆᚱ, ᛁᚢᚱᛁᛐᛁᛌᚴ ᚢᚴᛚᛆᚱᚽᛁᛁᛐ, ᚴᚢᛌᛐᚿᛆᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛘᛆᚿᚴᛚᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚴᛌᛐᛆᛐᛆ.",
    "unknowns": "ᚴᚠᛁᚿ ᛌᚢᛘ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚱ, ᚴᚠᛆ ᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᛚ ᚢᚴ ᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚴᛌᚢᛘᚠᛆᚿᚴ ᛌᚢᛘ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᚠᛆᛚᛐ, ᛁᚴᛌᛐᛁᚱᚿ ᛆᛐᚢᛒᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚢᚴ ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᛐᛁᛐᛁᚿ ᛒᚭ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛁᚠᛁᛐᛁᚿᛌ.",
    "status": "OPEN",
    "publication_time": "2026-08-16T20:45:00Z",
    "last_review": "2026-08-14",
    "next_review": "2026-11-14",
    "withdrawal_conditions": "ᛐᚱᛁᚴᚴ ᛐᛁᛚᛒᛆᚴᛁ ᛒᛁᚱᚱᛁ ᛐᛁᚱᛌᚢᛘ ᛌᛒᚯᚱᛌᛘᚭᛚᛁᛐ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛚᚢᚴᛁᛌᚴ ᚢᛘᚢᚴᛚᛁᚴ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚢᛐᛁᛌᛐᛒᛆᚱᛐ; ᛒᛁᚠᛆᚱ ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴ ᚢᚱᛐᛚᚢᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛌᛆᚿᚿᛌᚢᚿ.",
    "final_resolution": null,
    "score": null,
    "correction_status": "NONE",
    "updates": [
        {
            "forecast_id": "FC-2026-084",
            "sequence": 1,
            "time": "2026-08-16T20:45:00Z",
            "probability_low": 35,
            "probability_high": 55,
            "reason": "ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴ ᛌ14-estimat ᛒᛆᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᛒᚭ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᛌᛁᛁᛚᛚᛁ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛆᚱ, ᛐᛁᚴᚿᛁᛌᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚿᚢᛘᚠᚯᚱᛒᛆᚱᚽᛁᛁᛐ, ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛐᛁᛌᛐᚴᚢᛚᛐᚢᚱ ᚢᚴ ᛐᚱᛁᚴᛚᛁᛁᚴ ᛁ ᚠᛚᛁᛁᚱᛁᛘᛒᛚᛁᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛆᚱᛐᛁᚠᛆᚴᛐᛒᛁᚿᚿᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚠᚢᛌᛁᛌᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᛌᚴ-ᛁᚿᚠᚱᛆᛌᛐᚱᚢᚴᛐᚢᚱᛒᛁᚠᛁᛌ.",
            "previous_hash": "0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
            "entry_hash": "af6420b55c43cb91683691de1c83b07ffaa43bea494a78a785c82dc13e0f2a59"
        }
    ],
    "source_ids": [
        "SRC-423",
        "SRC-449",
        "SRC-450"
    ],
    "resolution_source_ids": [],
    "resolution": null,
    "limitations": "ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿᛁᛐ ᛁᚱ ᛁᛁ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᛌᛆᚿᚿᛌᚢᚿᛌᚠᚢᚱᛐᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ, ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛒᛚᛆᚿ, ᛆᚠᚴᛁᛁᚱᛐ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚢᛒᛁᚱᛆᛐᛁᚠ ᚢᚱᛐᚱᛁ.",
    "original_question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᚱᚢᚿᛁᛐᚢᛘᛆᛁᚿᚿᛁᛐᚠᚢᚱᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚢᚦᛁᚱᚱᚢᚿᛁᚴᛐᚢᛘᛆᛁᚿᛌ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2029 ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛘᛁᛁᚱ ᚱᛁᚴᛁᛒᚱᚢᚴᛆᛚ ᛘᛆᛌᚴᛁᚿᛚᛁᛌᛒᛆᚱ ᚴᛚᛆᛌᛌᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᛐᛆᚿ ᚭ ᛒᛚᛆᚿᛐᛆ ᛘᛁᛐᛚᛁᛘᛌᚴᛆᛒ ᚢᚴ ᛘᚢᚿᛐᛁᚴᚽᛁᛁᛐ?",
    "original_probability_low": 35,
    "original_probability_high": 55,
    "score_method": "BRIER_INTERVAL_V1",
    "scoring_rule_version": "1.0.0",
    "resolution_authority": "ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᛚᛐᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛁᚴᛌᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚱᛁᛐᛆᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᛚᛚ ᛆᚠᚴᛁᛁᚱᛐ ᛁᛐᛐᛁᚱ ᛐᛆᛐᚢ. ᚴᛚᛁᛁᚿᛐ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛌᛁᛐᛁ ᚴᛆᚿ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛆ ᛆᚢᛐᚢᛘᛆᛐᛁᛌᚴ.",
    "ledger_entry_count": 1,
    "ledger_head_hash": "af6420b55c43cb91683691de1c83b07ffaa43bea494a78a785c82dc13e0f2a59",
    "ledger_hash_method": "SHA-256-CANONICAL-JSON-2",
    "ledger_hash_valid": true,
    "ledger_hash_payload_fields": [
        "forecast_id",
        "sequence",
        "time",
        "probability_low",
        "probability_high",
        "reason_nb",
        "previous_hash",
        "hash_method"
    ],
    "calibration_bin": "ᛒ40_59"
}