{
    "id": "FC-2026-060",
    "slug": "fc-2026-060",
    "question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛁᛁᚿ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚢᛒᛒᚱᛁᛐᛐᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᛚ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2030 ᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᛆ ᚱᛁᛁᚿ ᛁᛐᛁᚿᛐᛁᛐᛁᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚠᛁᚱᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚴᚢᚿᚠᛁᚴᚢᚱᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚠᚯᚱ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚᛁᚱᛐ ᚱᛁᛌᛐᛆᚱᛐ?",
    "title": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛁᛁᚿ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚢᛒᛒᚱᛁᛐᛐᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᛚ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2030 ᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᛆ ᚱᛁᛁᚿ ᛁᛐᛁᚿᛐᛁᛐᛁᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚠᛁᚱᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚴᚢᚿᚠᛁᚴᚢᚱᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚠᚯᚱ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚᛁᚱᛐ ᚱᛁᛌᛐᛆᚱᛐ?",
    "resolution_date": "2030-08-14",
    "resolution_criteria": "ᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᛚᛁᚿ ᛘᚭ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛘᚭᛚ, ᛘᚭᛚᛁᛒᚢᚿᚴᛐ, ᛒᛚᚢᚴᚴᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛆᚱ, ᚢᛆᚠᚽᛁᚿᚴᛁᚴ ᚠᛁᚱᛁᚠᛁᚴᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚢᚴ ᛒᛁᚠᛆᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᛆᚠ ᛘᛁᛌᛚᚢᚴᚴᛆ ᚱᛁᛌᛐᛆᚱᛐᛒᚱᚯᚠᛁᚱ.",
    "probability_low": 45,
    "probability_high": 65,
    "confidence_class": "C3",
    "base_rate": "ᚿᚢᛁ ᛒᚱᚢᛐᚢᚴᚢᛚᛚ- ᚢᚴ ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᛚᛆᚱ ᚿᚭᚱ ᚢᚠᛐᛁ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᛒᛁᛚᚢᛐ, ᛘᛁᛐᛆᚿ ᚠᛚᛁᛁᚱᛁᛘᛒᛚᛁᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᚿᚢᚱᛘᛆᛐᛁᚠᛁ ᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᚢᚴ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚠᚢᚿᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿᛌᛒᛁᚠᛁᛌ ᛐᛁᚴ ᛚᛁᚿᚴᚱᛁ ᛐᛁᛐ.",
    "evidence_set": [
        "SRC-338",
        "SRC-339",
        "SRC-340"
    ],
    "assumptions": "ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌ- ᚢᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᛌᚴ-ᛁᚿᚠᚱᛆᛌᛐᚱᚢᚴᛐᚢᚱᛒᚱᚢᚴᚱᛆᛘ ᚽᛁᛚᛐ ᚠᚱᛆᛘ, ᚢᚴ ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐ ᚴᛆᚿ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚᛁᚱᛆᛌᛐ ᛘᚢᛐ ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᚢᛘ.",
    "drivers": "ᛘᛆᛌᚴᛁᚿᛆᚴᛁᚿᛐᚠᛁᚴᛌᛐ, ᛒᛁᚽᚢᚠ ᚠᚢᚱ ᚠᛆᛁᛚ-ᚴᛚᚢᛌᛁᛐ ᛆᚢᛐᚢᚱᛁᛐᛁᛐ, ᛒᚱᚢᚴᚱᛆᛘᚠᛆᚱᛁᚠᚢᚱᛌᚢᚿᛁᚿᚴᛌᚱᛁᛌᛁᚴᚢ, ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᛌᚴ ᚴᚱᛆᚠᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᚢᛘ ᛆᚢᛐᛁᛐᛁᚱᛒᛆᚱ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚢᛒᛒᚱᛁᛐᛐᛁᚿᚴ.",
    "counter_drivers": "ᚠᛁᚿᛐᚢᚱᛚᚢᚴᚴ, ᛒᚱᚢᛒᚱᛁᛁᛐᛅᚱᛁ ᚠᚢᚱᛘᛆᛐ, ᛘᛆᚿᚴᛚᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᛒᛁᚿᚴᚽᛘᛆᚱᚴ, ᛁᚢᚱᛁᛐᛁᛌᚴ ᚢᚴᛚᛆᚱᚽᛁᛁᛐ, ᚢᛐᛁᛚᛌᛐᚱᛁᚴᚴᛁᛚᛁᚴ ᚠᛁᚿᛆᚿᛌᛁᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚠᚭ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚴᛌᛐᛆᛐᛆ.",
    "unknowns": "ᚴᚠᛁᚿ ᛌᚢᛘ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚱ, ᚴᚠᛆ ᛘᚢᛐᛁᛚᛚ- ᚢᚴ ᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚴᛌᚢᛘᚠᛆᚿᚴ ᛌᚢᛘ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᚠᛆᛚᛐ, ᛁᚴᛌᛐᛁᚱᚿ ᛆᛐᚢᛒᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚢᚴ ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᛐᛁᛐᛁᚿ ᛒᚭ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛁᚠᛁᛐᛁᚿᛌ.",
    "status": "OPEN",
    "publication_time": "2026-08-16T03:25:00Z",
    "last_review": "2026-08-14",
    "next_review": "2026-11-14",
    "withdrawal_conditions": "ᛐᚱᛁᚴᚴ ᛐᛁᛚᛒᛆᚴᛁ ᛒᛁᚱᚱᛁ ᛐᛁᚱᛌᚢᛘ ᛌᛒᚯᚱᛌᛘᚭᛚᛁᛐ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛚᚢᚴᛁᛌᚴ ᚢᛘᚢᚴᛚᛁᚴ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚢᛐᛁᛌᛐᛒᛆᚱᛐ; ᛒᛁᚠᛆᚱ ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴ ᚢᚱᛐᛚᚢᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛌᛆᚿᚿᛌᚢᚿ.",
    "final_resolution": null,
    "score": null,
    "correction_status": "NONE",
    "updates": [
        {
            "sequence": 1,
            "time": "2026-08-16T03:25:00Z",
            "probability_low": 45,
            "probability_high": 65,
            "reason": "ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴ ᛌ10-estimat ᛒᛆᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᛒᚭ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᛆᛌᛁ, ᛐᛁᚴᚿᛁᛌᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚿᚢᛘᚠᚯᚱᛒᛆᚱᚽᛁᛁᛐ, ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚢᚴ ᚽᛁᛌᛐᚢᚱᛁᛌᚴ ᛐᚱᛁᚴᛚᛁᛁᚴ ᛁ ᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᚢᛒᛁᚱᛆᛒᛁᛚᛁᛐᛁᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᛌᚴ-ᛁᚿᚠᚱᛆᛌᛐᚱᚢᚴᛐᚢᚱᛒᛁᚠᛁᛌ.",
            "previous_hash": "0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
            "entry_hash": "5e1d902ce73cb8b4fd00a797101aae73a0f55aea9d82b67597f60c245ce4b648"
        }
    ],
    "source_ids": [
        "SRC-338",
        "SRC-339",
        "SRC-340"
    ],
    "resolution_source_ids": [],
    "resolution": null,
    "limitations": "ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿᛁᛐ ᛁᚱ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛆᚿᛆᛚᚢᛌᛁ. ᛌᛆᚿᚿᛌᚢᚿᛁᛐ ᛁᚱ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᚢᚱᛐᚱᛁ, ᛆᚢᛐᚢᚱᛁᛐᛁᛐ, ᛚᛁᚠᛁ ᛌᛐᛆᛐᚢᛌ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛚᚢᚠᚿᛆᛐ ᚢᛘ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ.",
    "original_question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛁᛁᚿ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚢᛒᛒᚱᛁᛐᛐᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᚱᚢᚠᛁᛚ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2030 ᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᛆ ᚱᛁᛁᚿ ᛁᛐᛁᚿᛐᛁᛐᛁᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚠᛁᚱᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚴᚢᚿᚠᛁᚴᚢᚱᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚠᚯᚱ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚᛁᚱᛐ ᚱᛁᛌᛐᛆᚱᛐ?",
    "original_probability_low": 45,
    "original_probability_high": 65,
    "score_method": "BRIER_INTERVAL_V1",
    "scoring_rule_version": "1.0",
    "resolution_authority": "ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᛌᚢᛘ ᚴᛆᚿ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚᛁᚱᛆᛌᛐ ᛘᚢᛐ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᛁᛐ. ᛌ.com ᛌᚴᛆᛒᛁᚱ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛁᚴᛌᛐᛁᚱᚿ ᛘᚢᚿᛐᛁᚴᚽᛁᛁᛐ.",
    "ledger_entry_count": 1,
    "ledger_head_hash": "5e1d902ce73cb8b4fd00a797101aae73a0f55aea9d82b67597f60c245ce4b648",
    "ledger_hash_method": "SHA-256-CANONICAL-JSON-2",
    "ledger_hash_payload_fields": [
        "forecast_id",
        "sequence",
        "time",
        "probability_low",
        "probability_high",
        "reason_nb",
        "previous_hash",
        "hash_method"
    ],
    "calibration_bin": "ᛒ40_59"
}