{
    "id": "FC-2026-042",
    "slug": "fc-2026-042",
    "question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ ᛁᛁᛐᛐ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛆᚠᛆᚿᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚱᛁᛆᚴᛐᚢᚱ- ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚴᛁᛁᚱᚿᛁᚴᚱᛆᚠᛐᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛒᚱᚢᛌᛁᛁᚴᛐ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2030 ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛁᛁᛐ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᚴᚢᛒᛁᚱᚠᚢᛌᛁᛌᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚢᛒᛒᚱᛁᛐᛐᛁᚿᚴᛌᚱᛁᛌᚢᛚᛐᛆᛐ ᛘᛁᛐ ᛌᛆᛘᛌᛐᚢᚿᛐᛁᛌ ᚴᚱᛆᚠᛐ-, ᚿᛁᛐᛐ- ᚢᚴ OT-ᚠᛁᛁᛚ?",
    "title": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ ᛁᛁᛐᛐ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛆᚠᛆᚿᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚱᛁᛆᚴᛐᚢᚱ- ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚴᛁᛁᚱᚿᛁᚴᚱᛆᚠᛐᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛒᚱᚢᛌᛁᛁᚴᛐ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2030 ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛁᛁᛐ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᚴᚢᛒᛁᚱᚠᚢᛌᛁᛌᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚢᛒᛒᚱᛁᛐᛐᛁᚿᚴᛌᚱᛁᛌᚢᛚᛐᛆᛐ ᛘᛁᛐ ᛌᛆᛘᛌᛐᚢᚿᛐᛁᛌ ᚴᚱᛆᚠᛐ-, ᚿᛁᛐᛐ- ᚢᚴ OT-ᚠᛁᛁᛚ?",
    "resolution_date": "2030-08-14",
    "resolution_criteria": "ᛁᛁ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚱᛆᛒᛒᚢᚱᛐ ᛘᚭ ᛌᚴᛁᛚᛐᚱᛆ ᛐᛁᛌᛐᚢᛘᚠᛆᚿᚴ, ᛌᛆᛘᛐᛁᛐᛁᚴᛁ ᚠᛁᛁᛚ, ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚢᛒᛒᚱᛁᛐᛐᛁᚿᚴᛌᛘᚭᛚ, ᚱᛁᛌᚢᛚᛐᛆᛐ, ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚴᚢᚱᚱᛁᚴᛁᚱᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᛐᛁᛚᛐᛆᚴ. ᚴᛁᚿᛁᚱᛁᛚᛚ ᛒᛁᚱᛁᛐᛌᚴᛆᛒᛌᛒᛚᛆᚿ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᚴᛁᛚ ᚴᚢᛘᛒᚢᚿᛁᚿᛐᛐᛁᛌᛐ ᛐᛁᛚ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ.",
    "probability_low": 20,
    "probability_high": 45,
    "confidence_class": "C3",
    "base_rate": "ᛌᛆᛘᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚿᛒᛆᚱᛁ ᛁᚿᛁᚱᚴᛁ-, ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌ- ᚢᚴ ᚱᛁᚴᚢᛚᛆᛐᚢᚱᛁᛌᚴᛁ ᛒᚱᚢᚴᚱᛆᛘ ᚴᚭᚱ ᚢᚠᛐᛁ ᚠᚱᚭ ᚴᚢᚿᚿᚴᛁᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᛐᛁᛚ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᛐᛁᛘᚢᚿᛌᛐᚱᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚠᚯᚱ ᛒᚱᛁᛁ ᛐᚱᛁᚠᛐ; ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᛆᚠ ᛘᚭᛚᛒᛆᚱᛁ ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᚱᛁᛌᚢᛚᛐᛆᛐ ᛁᚱ ᛌᛁᛁᛚᛐᚿᛆᚱᛁ ᛁᚿᚿ ᛒᚱᚢᛌᛁᛁᚴᛐᚴᚢᚿᚿᚴᛁᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ.",
    "evidence_set": [
        "SRC-228",
        "SRC-236",
        "SRC-254",
        "SRC-232"
    ],
    "assumptions": "ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛒᚱᚢᚴᚱᛆᛘ ᚽᛁᛚᛐ ᚠᚱᛆᛘ, ᛐᛁᚠᛁᚿᛁᛌᛁᚢᚿᛆᚿᛁ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᚠᛁᛌᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛁᚿᛐᚱᛆ, ᚢᚴ ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᛒᚱᛁᛘᛅᚱᚴᛁᛁᛚᛐᛁᚱ ᛁᚱ ᛐᛁᛚᚴᛁᛁᚿᚴᛁᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᚠᛁᛐ ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ.",
    "drivers": "ᚿᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿᛆᛚᛚᛆᛒᚢᚱᛆᛐᚢᚱᛁᛁᛐᛁᛌᛐᛒᛁᛐ, ᛘᛁᚴᚱᚢᚿᛁᛐᛐᚠᚢᚱᛌᚴᚿᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚱᛁᚴᚢᛚᛆᛐᚢᚱᛁᛌᚴ ᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᛐᛁᛚ ᛘᚭᛚᛒᛆᚱ ᛒᚱᛁᛌᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ.",
    "counter_drivers": "ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᚴᚱᛆᛐᛁᚱᛐ ᛁᚿᚿᚽᛆᛚᛐ, ᚴᚢᛌᛐᚿᛆᛐ, ᛘᛆᚿᚴᛚᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᛒᚱᚢᛌᛁᛁᚴᛐᛘᚢᛐᛁᚿᚽᛁᛁᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛘᚢᛐᚠᛁᛚᛁᛁ ᛘᚢᛐ ᚭ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᚠᛁᛁᛚ.",
    "unknowns": "ᛒᚱᚢᛌᛁᛁᚴᛐᚠᛆᛚ, ᛁᚢᚱᛁᛌᛐᛁᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᚿᚴᛌᚴᚱᛆᛐᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ, ᚴᚢᛌᛐᚿᛆᛐ, ᛚᛁᛌᛁᚿᛌᛚᚯᛒ, ᛐᛁᚴᚿᛁᛌᚴ ᛘᚢᛐᛁᚿᚽᛁᛁᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌᚠᛁᛚᛁᛁ ᛁᚱ ᚢᚴᛁᛁᚿᛐᛁ.",
    "status": "OPEN",
    "publication_time": "2026-08-15T17:25:00Z",
    "last_review": "2026-08-14",
    "next_review": "2026-11-14",
    "withdrawal_conditions": "ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿᛁᛐ ᚠᛁᚱᛐ ᛒᛁᚱᚱᛁ ᛐᚱᛁᚴᛐ ᛐᛁᚱᛌᚢᛘ ᛌᛒᚯᚱᛌᛘᚭᛚᛁᛐ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛘᚭᛚᛁᛚᛁᚴ ᚢᛘᚢᚴᛚᛁᚴ, ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᚠᛆᛘᛁᛚᛁᛁᚿ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛆᚠᚠᛁᚴᛚᛆ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᛁᛐ ᚠᚭᚱ ᛁᛁᚿ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛐ ᛚᚢᚴᛁᛌᚴ ᚠᛁᛁᛚ. ᚢᚱᛁᚴᛁᚿᛆᛚ ᚢᚱᛐᛚᚢᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚽᛁᛌᛐᚢᚱᛁᚴᚴ ᛌᚴᛆᛚ ᛌᛐᚭ.",
    "updates": [
        {
            "time": "2026-08-15T17:25:00Z",
            "probability_low": 20,
            "probability_high": 45,
            "reason": "ᚠᚢᚱᛌᛐᛁ ᛌ07-vurdering ᛒᚭ ᚴᚱᚢᚿᚿᛚᛆᚴ ᛆᚠ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛒᚱᚢᚴᚱᛆᛘᛌᛐᛆᛐᚢᛌ, ᚱᛁᚴᚢᛚᛆᛐᚢᚱᛁᛌᚴᛁ ᛌᛒᚢᚱ, ᛌᛆᛘᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚿᛒᛆᚱ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚿᚢᛘᚠᚯᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᛌᚢᚿᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛘᚢᛐᛐᚱᛁᚠᛆᚱᛆᚱ.",
            "sequence": 1,
            "previous_hash": "0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
            "entry_hash": "fdce0331e6a2077b2f7f234ddfdf4321c986474dae6986d6fa7983a48a08d3d9"
        }
    ],
    "resolution": null,
    "score_method": "BRIER_INTERVAL_V1",
    "scoring_rule_version": "1.0",
    "resolution_source_ids": [],
    "resolution_authority": "ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛒᚱᛁᛘᛅᚱᚴᛁᛁᛚᛐᛁ ᚢᚴ ᚱᛁᛒᚱᚢᛐᚢᚴᛁᚱᛒᛆᚱ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚ ᛘᚢᛐ ᛐᛁᚿ ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᚢᚱᛐᛚᚢᛐᛁᚿ; ᛌ.com ᛌᚴᛆᛒᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᚴᛆ ᛁᚴᛌᛐᛁᚱᚿ ᛘᚢᚿᛐᛁᚴᚽᛁᛁᛐ.",
    "calibration_bin": "ᛒ20_39",
    "correction_status": "NONE",
    "limitations": "ᛐᛁᛐᛐᛁ ᛁᚱ ᛁᛁᛐ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿ, ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛁᛁ ᛆᚠᚴᛁᛁᚱᛐ, ᛁᚿᚠᛁᛌᛐᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌᛐᛁᛚᚱᚭᛐᛁᚿᚴ, ᚢᛒᛁᚱᛆᛐᛁᚠ ᛒᛚᛆᚿ, ᚴᛆᚱᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛌᛒᚭᛐᚢᛘ ᚢᛘ ᚠᛆᚴᛐᛁᛌᚴ ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛚᛁᛁᚴ.",
    "ledger_entry_count": 1,
    "ledger_head_hash": "fdce0331e6a2077b2f7f234ddfdf4321c986474dae6986d6fa7983a48a08d3d9",
    "ledger_hash_method": "SHA-256-CANONICAL-JSON-2",
    "ledger_hash_payload_fields": [
        "forecast_id",
        "sequence",
        "time",
        "probability_low",
        "probability_high",
        "reason_nb",
        "previous_hash",
        "hash_method"
    ],
    "original_question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ ᛁᛁᛐᛐ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛆᚠᛆᚿᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚱᛁᛆᚴᛐᚢᚱ- ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚴᛁᛁᚱᚿᛁᚴᚱᛆᚠᛐᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛒᚱᚢᛌᛁᛁᚴᛐ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2030 ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛁᛁᛐ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᚴᚢᛒᛁᚱᚠᚢᛌᛁᛌᚴ ᚴᛁᛁᚿᚢᛒᛒᚱᛁᛐᛐᛁᚿᚴᛌᚱᛁᛌᚢᛚᛐᛆᛐ ᛘᛁᛐ ᛌᛆᛘᛌᛐᚢᚿᛐᛁᛌ ᚴᚱᛆᚠᛐ-, ᚿᛁᛐᛐ- ᚢᚴ OT-ᚠᛁᛁᛚ?",
    "original_probability_low": 20,
    "original_probability_high": 45
}