{
    "id": "FC-2026-031",
    "slug": "fc-2026-031",
    "question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ ᛐᚢ ᛌᛐᚢᚱᛁ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛐᛁᚴᚿᛁᛌᚴᛁ ᚱᛆᛘᛘᛁᚠᛁᚱᚴ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2028 ᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᛆ ᛁᚴᛌᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚴᚱᚢᛒᛐᚢᚴᚱᛆᚠᛁᛌᚴ ᚿᚯᚴᚴᛁᛚᛚᛁᚠᛌᛚᚯᛒ ᛘᛁᛐ ᚱᚢᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛐᛁᛚᛒᛆᚴᛁᚴᛆᛚᛚᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚢᚠᛁᚱᚴᛆᚿᚴᛌᛒᚢᛌᛐ?",
    "title": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ ᛐᚢ ᛌᛐᚢᚱᛁ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛐᛁᚴᚿᛁᛌᚴᛁ ᚱᛆᛘᛘᛁᚠᛁᚱᚴ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2028 ᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᛆ ᛁᚴᛌᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚴᚱᚢᛒᛐᚢᚴᚱᛆᚠᛁᛌᚴ ᚿᚯᚴᚴᛁᛚᛚᛁᚠᛌᛚᚯᛒ ᛘᛁᛐ ᚱᚢᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛐᛁᛚᛒᛆᚴᛁᚴᛆᛚᛚᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚢᚠᛁᚱᚴᛆᚿᚴᛌᛒᚢᛌᛐ?",
    "resolution_date": "2028-08-14",
    "resolution_criteria": "ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ ᛐᚢ ᛆᚢᛐᚢᚱᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᛌᛐᛆᚿᛐᛆᚱᛐ- ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᚿᚴᛁᚯᛒᛌᚱᛆᛘᛘᛁᚠᛁᚱᚴ ᛘᚭ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛒᛁᚿᛐᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᛐᛁᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᛌᚢᛘ ᚢᛐᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴᛁᛚᛁᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᛁᛁᚴᛆᚱ, ᚱᚢᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛐᛁᛚᛒᛆᚴᛁᚴᛆᛚᛚᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚢᚠᛁᚱᚴᛆᚿᚴᛌᛒᚢᛌᛐ. ᚴᛁᚿᛁᚱᛁᛚᛚ ᛐᛁᛚᚱᚭᛐᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᛐᛆᚿ ᛆᛚᛚᛁ ᚠᛁᚱᛁ ᚠᛁᛚᛐ ᛐᛁᛚ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ.",
    "probability_low": 60,
    "probability_high": 80,
    "confidence_class": "C3",
    "base_rate": "ᚿᚯᚴᚴᛁᛚᛌᛐᚢᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᚽᛆᚱ ᛚᛆᚿᚴ ᛁᚿᛌᛐᛁᛐᚢᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᛚᛚ ᚽᛁᛌᛐᚢᚱᛁᛁ, ᛘᛁᚿ ᚿᚢᛁ ᛆᛚᚴᚢᚱᛁᛐᛘᛁᚢᚠᛁᚱᚴᛆᚿᚴᛆᚱ ᛆᚢᚴᛆᚱ ᛒᛁᚽᚢᚠᛁᛐ ᚠᚢᚱ ᛁᚴᛌᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᛚᛁᚠᛌᛚᚯᛒᛌᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚ.",
    "evidence_set": [
        "SRC-195",
        "SRC-196",
        "SRC-197"
    ],
    "assumptions": "ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᚠᛆᛘᛁᛚᛁᛆᚿᛁ ᚽᛁᛚᛐ ᚠᚱᛆᛘ ᚢᚴ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛐᛁᚴᚿᛁ ᛁᚿᚿ ᛁ ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ ᛐᚢ ᛆᚢᛐᚢᚱᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᚱᛆᛘᛘᛁᚠᛁᚱᚴ.",
    "drivers": "ᛒᚢᛌᛐᚴᚠᛆᚿᛐᛁᛘᛁᚴᚱᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ, ᚱᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚢᚿᛌᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᚢᚴ ᚢᛒᛁᚱᛆᛐᛁᚠᛐ ᛒᛁᚽᚢᚠ ᚠᚢᚱ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚᛁᚱᛐ ᚢᚠᛁᚱᚴᛆᚿᚴ.",
    "counter_drivers": "ᚢᛐᚴᛆᛌᛐ ᛌᛐᚢᛒᛒᛆᚱ, ᚴᚱᛆᚠ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᚠᚱᛁᚠᛁᛚᛚᛁᚴᛁ, ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛁᛘᛒᛚᛁᛘᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᚠᛁᚱᛐ ᚽᛆᛚᛐᛁ ᚢᛐᛆᚿᚠᚢᚱ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᚱᛆᛘᛘᛁᚠᛁᚱᚴ.",
    "unknowns": "ᛁᚿᛐᛁᛚᛁᚴ ᚢᚱᛐᛚᚢᛐ, ᛁᚢᚱᛁᛌᛐᛁᚴᛌᛁᚢᚿᛌᚢᛘᚠᛆᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᛁᚿᚿᚴᛁᚯᛒᛌᛒᛁᚿᛐᛁᚿᚴ ᛁᚱ ᚢᚴᛁᛁᚿᛐᛁ.",
    "status": "OPEN",
    "publication_time": "2026-08-15T14:30:00Z",
    "last_review": "2026-08-14",
    "next_review": "2026-11-14",
    "withdrawal_conditions": "ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿᛁᛐ ᚠᛁᚱᛐ ᛒᛁᚱᚱᛁ ᛐᚱᛁᚴᛐ ᛐᛁᚱᛌᚢᛘ ᛌᛒᚯᚱᛌᛘᚭᛚᛁᛐ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛘᚭᛚᛁᛚᛁᚴ ᚢᛘᚢᚴᛚᛁᚴ, ᛁᚿᛌᛐᛁᛐᚢᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᚿ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᚠᛆᛘᛁᛚᛁᛁᚿ ᛒᛚᛁᚱ ᛆᚠᚠᛁᚴᛚᛆ, ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᛁᛐ ᚠᚭᚱ ᛁᛁᚿ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛐ ᛚᚢᚴᛁᛌᚴ ᚠᛁᛁᛚ. ᚢᚱᛁᚴᛁᚿᛆᛚ ᚢᚱᛐᛚᚢᛐ ᚢᚴ ᚽᛁᛌᛐᚢᚱᛁᚴᚴ ᛌᚴᛆᛚ ᛌᛐᚭ.",
    "updates": [
        {
            "time": "2026-08-15T14:30:00Z",
            "probability_low": 60,
            "probability_high": 80,
            "reason": "ᚠᚢᚱᛌᛐᛁ ᛌ06-vurdering ᛒᚭ ᚴᚱᚢᚿᚿᛚᛆᚴ ᛆᚠ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐᛌᛐᛆᛐᚢᛌ, ᛌᛆᛘᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚿᛒᛆᚱ ᛁᚿᛌᛐᛁᛐᚢᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᛚᛚ ᛒᚱᚢᛌᛁᛌᛌ ᚢᚴ ᛌᚢᚿᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛘᚢᛐᛐᚱᛁᚠᛆᚱᛆᚱ.",
            "sequence": 1,
            "previous_hash": "0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
            "entry_hash": "7a9114cb640780f550496ae97db2e6297c6be29ca00e099aaea83b9053ef3bd3"
        }
    ],
    "resolution": null,
    "score_method": "BRIER_INTERVAL_V1",
    "scoring_rule_version": "1.0",
    "resolution_source_ids": [],
    "resolution_authority": "ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛒᚱᛁᛘᛅᚱᚴᛁᛁᛚᛐᛁ ᚢᚴ ᚱᛁᛒᚱᚢᛐᚢᚴᛁᚱᛒᛆᚱ ᚴᚢᚿᛐᚱᚢᛚᛚ ᛘᚢᛐ ᛐᛁᚿ ᚢᛒᛒᚽᛆᚠᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᚢᚱᛐᛚᚢᛐᛁᚿ; ᛌ.com ᛌᚴᛆᛒᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᚴᛆ ᛁᚴᛌᛐᛁᚱᚿ ᛘᚢᚿᛐᛁᚴᚽᛁᛁᛐ.",
    "calibration_bin": "ᛒ60_79",
    "correction_status": "NONE",
    "limitations": "ᛐᛁᛐᛐᛁ ᛁᚱ ᛁᛁᛐ ᛆᚠᚴᚱᛁᚿᛌᛆ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿ, ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛁᛁ ᛆᚠᚴᛁᛁᚱᛐ, ᚴᛆᚱᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᚠᚢᚱ ᛁᛘᛒᛚᛁᛘᛁᚿᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛌᛒᚭᛐᚢᛘ ᚢᛘ ᚠᛆᚴᛐᛁᛌᚴ ᚱᛁᛌᛁᚴᚢ.",
    "ledger_entry_count": 1,
    "ledger_head_hash": "7a9114cb640780f550496ae97db2e6297c6be29ca00e099aaea83b9053ef3bd3",
    "ledger_hash_method": "SHA-256-CANONICAL-JSON-2",
    "ledger_hash_payload_fields": [
        "forecast_id",
        "sequence",
        "time",
        "probability_low",
        "probability_high",
        "reason_nb",
        "previous_hash",
        "hash_method"
    ],
    "original_question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ ᛐᚢ ᛌᛐᚢᚱᛁ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴᛁ ᛐᛁᚴᚿᛁᛌᚴᛁ ᚱᛆᛘᛘᛁᚠᛁᚱᚴ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2028 ᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᛆ ᛁᚴᛌᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᛐᛐ ᚴᚱᚢᛒᛐᚢᚴᚱᛆᚠᛁᛌᚴ ᚿᚯᚴᚴᛁᛚᛚᛁᚠᛌᛚᚯᛒ ᛘᛁᛐ ᚱᚢᛐᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ, ᛐᛁᛚᛒᛆᚴᛁᚴᛆᛚᛚᛁᚿᚴ ᚢᚴ ᚢᚠᛁᚱᚴᛆᚿᚴᛌᛒᚢᛌᛐ?",
    "original_probability_low": 60,
    "original_probability_high": 80
}