{
    "id": "FC-2026-018",
    "slug": "fc-2026-018",
    "question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛐᛁᛐ ᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᚿᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿᛆᛚᛁ ᛁᚿᛁᚱᚴᛁᛒᚢᚱᚭᛁᛐ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛁᛁ ᚿᚢ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚠᛁᛌᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚱᛁᚠᛁᛐᛁᚱᛐ ᚴᛚᚢᛒᛆᛚ ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᚿᚴ ᚠᚢᚱ ᛁᛚᛁᚴᛐᚱᛁᛌᛁᛐᛁᛐᛌᛒᚱᚢᚴ ᛁ ᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2027?",
    "title": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛐᛁᛐ ᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᚿᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿᛆᛚᛁ ᛁᚿᛁᚱᚴᛁᛒᚢᚱᚭᛁᛐ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛁᛁ ᚿᚢ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚠᛁᛌᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚱᛁᚠᛁᛐᛁᚱᛐ ᚴᛚᚢᛒᛆᛚ ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᚿᚴ ᚠᚢᚱ ᛁᛚᛁᚴᛐᚱᛁᛌᛁᛐᛁᛐᛌᛒᚱᚢᚴ ᛁ ᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2027?",
    "resolution_date": "2027-08-14",
    "resolution_criteria": "ᛁᛁ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᛌᛁᛁᛚᛚ IEA-ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᚴᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᛘᚭ ᛚᛁᚴᚴᛁᛆ ᚠᚱᛆᛘ ᛁᛁᛐ ᚿᚢᛐᛐ ᚭᚱᛌᛐᛆᛚ, ᚿᚢ ᚽᚢᚠᚢᛐᛒᛆᚿᛁ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚠᛁᛌᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛁᚿᛐᚱᛆ ᛘᛁᛐᚢᛐᛁ ᚠᚢᚱ ᚴᛚᚢᛒᛆᛚ ᛁᛚᛁᚴᛐᚱᛁᛌᛁᛐᛁᛐᛌᛒᚱᚢᚴ ᛁ ᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱ ᚠᚱᛆᛘ ᛘᚢᛐ ᛘᛁᚿᛌᛐ 2030. ᛁᛁ ᚿᚢᚽᛁᛁᛐᛌᛌᛆᚴ ᚢᛐᛆᚿ ᚿᚢᛐᛐ ᛐᛆᛚ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛘᛁᛐᚢᛐᛁ ᛐᛁᛚ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ.",
    "probability_low": 70,
    "probability_high": 85,
    "confidence_class": "C3",
    "base_rate": "IEA ᚽᛆᚱ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛐ ᚠᛚᛁᛁᚱᛁ ᚢᛒᛒᛐᛆᛐᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛆᚱ ᛒᚭ ᚴᚢᚱᛐ ᛐᛁᛐ ᛁ ᛁᛁᛐ ᚠᛁᛚᛐ ᛘᛁᛐ ᚱᛆᛌᚴ ᛁᚿᛐᚱᛁᚿᚴ, ᛘᛁᚿ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᛚᛆᚿ ᚢᚴ ᛘᛁᛐᚢᛐᛁᛁᚿᛐᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᛁᚱ ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛌᛁᚴᚴᛁᚱ. ᛒᛆᛌᛁᚠᚱᛁᚴᚠᛁᚿᛌᛁᚿ ᛁᚱ ᚴᚠᛆᛚᛁᛐᛆᛐᛁᚠ.",
    "evidence_set": [
        "SRC-131",
        "SRC-063",
        "SRC-133"
    ],
    "assumptions": "IEA ᚽᛁᛚᛐ ᚠᚱᛆᛘ ᛘᛁᛐ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᛁᚿᛁᚱᚴᛁ- ᚢᚴ ᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᛆᚿᛆᛚᚢᛌᛁ, ᚢᚴ ᛁᛁᚿ ᚿᚢ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᚴᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿ ᚴᛆᚿ ᛌᛆᛘᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚿᛆᛌᛐ ᛘᛁᛐ 2026-grunnlaget.",
    "drivers": "ᛌᚿᚯᚴᚴ ᛁᛐᛐᛁᚱᛌᛒᚢᚱᚿᛆᛐᛌᚠᛁᚴᛌᛐ, ᚿᚢᛁ ᛒᚱᚢᛌᛁᛁᚴᛐ, ᛁᚿᛁᚱᚴᛁᛁᚠᚠᛁᚴᛐᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ, ᚿᛁᛐᛐᚴᚯ, ᚴᚱᛆᚠᛐᛆᚠᛐᛆᛚᛆᚱ ᚢᚴ ᛒᛁᚽᚢᚠ ᚠᚢᚱ ᚢᛒᛒᛐᛆᛐᛁᚱᛐ ᛒᚢᛚᛁᛐᛁᚴᚴᚴᚱᚢᚿᚿᛚᛆᚴ.",
    "counter_drivers": "ᛌᛐᛆᛒᛁᛚ ᚽᚢᚠᚢᛐᛒᛆᚿᛁ, ᛘᛆᚿᚴᛚᛆᚿᛐᛁ ᚿᚢᛁ ᛐᛆᛐᛆ, ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌᚢᛐᛌᛁᛐᛁᛁᚿᚴ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛌᛆᛘᛆᚿᛌᛚᚭᛁᚿᚴ ᛘᛁᛐ ᛆᚿᛐᚱᛁ ᛁᚿᛁᚱᚴᛁᚱᛆᛒᛒᚢᚱᛐᛆᚱ.",
    "unknowns": "ᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᚿᛁ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴᛌᛒᛚᛆᚿᛆᚱ, ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛐᛁᛐᛁᚴᛁ ᛐᛆᛐᛆᚴᛁᛁᛚᛐᛁᚱ, ᛘᚢᛐᛁᛚᛚᛁᚿᛐᚱᛁᚿᚴᛆᚱ ᚢᚴ ᚱᛁᚴᛁᚢᚿᛆᛚᛁ ᛌᛁᚢᚴᚴ.",
    "status": "OPEN",
    "publication_time": "2026-08-15T00:05:00Z",
    "last_review": "2026-08-14",
    "next_review": "2026-11-14",
    "withdrawal_conditions": "ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿᛁᛐ ᚠᛁᚱᛐ ᛐᚱᛁᚴᛐ ᛐᛁᚱᛌᚢᛘ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᚴᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᚿ ᚠᛁᚱᛐ ᚢᛘᚢᚴᛚᛁᚴ ᚭ ᛁᛐᛁᚿᛐᛁᚠᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ IEA ᛌᛚᚢᛐᛐᛆᚱ ᚭ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛁᛁᛐ ᛌᛆᛘᛆᚿᛚᛁᚴᚿᛒᛆᚱᛐ ᚴᛚᚢᛒᛆᛚᛐ ᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᚴᚱᚢᚿᚿᛚᛆᚴ.",
    "updates": [
        {
            "time": "2026-08-15T00:05:00Z",
            "probability_low": 70,
            "probability_high": 85,
            "reason": "ᚠᚢᚱᛌᛐᛁ ᚠᚢᚱᛐᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ ᛁᛐᛐᛁᚱ ᚢᛒᛒᛐᛆᛐᛁᚱᛐᛁ ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᚿᚴᛆᚱ ᚢᚴ ᛁᚿᛌᛐᛁᛐᚢᛌᛁᚢᚿᛁᛚᛚ ᚢᛒᛌᛁᚱᚠᛆᛐᚢᚱᛁᛁᛆᚴᛐᛁᚠᛁᛐᛁᛐ ᛁ 2026.",
            "sequence": 1,
            "previous_hash": "0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000",
            "entry_hash": "76f772aab036199fa392e713f489c8bfa0bb41b83468911e6f74f9eb719803ce"
        }
    ],
    "resolution": null,
    "score_method": "BRIER_INTERVAL_V1",
    "scoring_rule_version": "1.0",
    "resolution_source_ids": [],
    "resolution_authority": "ᛚᚯᚢᛌᛁᚿᚴ ᚴᚱᛁᚠ ᛁᛁᛐ ᚢᚠᚠᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ IEA-ᛐᚢᚴᚢᛘᛁᚿᛐ ᛌᚢᛘ ᛘᚯᛐᛁᚱ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᛁᛐ; ᛌ.com ᚠᚢᚱᛐᛁᚱᛁᚱ ᛒᛁᚱᚱᛁ ᚴᚱᛁᛐᛁᚱᛁᛁᛐ ᚢᚴ ᛌᚴᛆᛒᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᚴᛆ ᛁᚴᛌᛐᛁᚱᚿ ᛆᚢᛐᚢᚱᛁᛐᛁᛐ.",
    "calibration_bin": "ᛒ60_79",
    "correction_status": "NONE",
    "limitations": "ᛐᛁᛐᛐᛁ ᛁᚱ ᛁᛁᛐ ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚢᚿ ᚢᛘ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛁᚿᚴ, ᛁᚴᚴᛁᛁ ᛁᛁᚿ ᛒᚱᚢᚴᚿᚢᛌᛁ ᚠᚢᚱ ᚠᛆᚴᛐᛁᛌᚴ ᛁᛚᛁᚴᛐᚱᛁᛌᛁᛐᛁᛐᛌᛒᚱᚢᚴ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᛐᚱᚢᚴᚴ ᛁᚿᛁᚱᚴᛁᛐᛁᛚᚴᛆᚿᚴ.",
    "ledger_entry_count": 1,
    "ledger_head_hash": "76f772aab036199fa392e713f489c8bfa0bb41b83468911e6f74f9eb719803ce",
    "ledger_hash_method": "SHA-256-CANONICAL-JSON-2",
    "ledger_hash_payload_fields": [
        "forecast_id",
        "sequence",
        "time",
        "probability_low",
        "probability_high",
        "reason_nb",
        "previous_hash",
        "hash_method"
    ],
    "original_question": "ᚠᛁᛚ ᛐᛁᛐ ᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱᚿᛆᛌᛁᚢᚿᛆᛚᛁ ᛁᚿᛁᚱᚴᛁᛒᚢᚱᚭᛁᛐ ᛒᚢᛒᛚᛁᛌᛁᚱᛆ ᛁᛁ ᚿᚢ ᛁᛚᛚᛁᚱ ᚠᛁᛌᛁᚿᛐᛚᛁᚴ ᚱᛁᚠᛁᛐᛁᚱᛐ ᚴᛚᚢᛒᛆᛚ ᚠᚱᛆᛘᛌᚴᚱᛁᚠᛁᚿᚴ ᚠᚢᚱ ᛁᛚᛁᚴᛐᚱᛁᛌᛁᛐᛁᛐᛌᛒᚱᚢᚴ ᛁ ᛐᛆᛐᛆᛌᛁᚿᛐᛁᚱ ᛁᚿᚿᛆᚿ 14. ᛆᚢᚴᚢᛌᛐ 2027?",
    "original_probability_low": 70,
    "original_probability_high": 85
}